A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model     

lvaro Gonzlez  Miguel Vzquez-Prada  Javier B. Gmez  Amalio F. Pacheco 《Tectonophysics》2006,424(3-4):319

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.  相似文献   

Great earthquakes of variable magnitude at the Cascadia subduction zone   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alan R. Nelson  Harvey M. Kelsey 《Quaternary Research》2006,65(3):354-365

Comparison of histories of great earthquakes and accompanying tsunamis at eight coastal sites suggests plate-boundary ruptures of varying length, implying great earthquakes of variable magnitude at the Cascadia subduction zone. Inference of rupture length relies on degree of overlap on radiocarbon age ranges for earthquakes and tsunamis, and relative amounts of coseismic subsidence and heights of tsunamis. Written records of a tsunami in Japan provide the most conclusive evidence for rupture of much of the plate boundary during the earthquake of 26 January 1700. Cascadia stratigraphic evidence dating from about 1600 cal yr B.P., similar to that for the 1700 earthquake, implies a similarly long rupture with substantial subsidence and a high tsunami. Correlations are consistent with other long ruptures about 1350 cal yr B.P., 2500 cal yr B.P., 3400 cal yr B.P., 3800 cal yr B.P., 4400 cal yr B.P., and 4900 cal yr B.P. A rupture about 700-1100 cal yr B.P. was limited to the northern and central parts of the subduction zone, and a northern rupture about 2900 cal yr B.P. may have been similarly limited. Times of probable short ruptures in southern Cascadia include about 1100 cal yr B.P., 1700 cal yr B.P., 3200 cal yr B.P., 4200 cal yr B.P., 4600 cal yr B.P., and 4700 cal yr B.P. Rupture patterns suggest that the plate boundary in northern Cascadia usually breaks in long ruptures during the greatest earthquakes. Ruptures in southernmost Cascadia vary in length and recurrence intervals more than ruptures in northern Cascadia.  相似文献   

Geological and geomorphological characteristics of landslides triggered by the 2004 Mid Niigta prefecture earthquake in Japan   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

Masahiro Chigira  Hiroshi Yagi 《Engineering Geology》2006,82(4):202-221

The 2004 Mid Niigta prefecture earthquake (M_JMA 6.8) triggered more than one thousand landslides in the Miocene to Quaternary sedimentary rocks in Japan. The most common landslides were shallow disrupted landslides on steep slopes, which has been common in many previous disastrous earthquakes in the world. The Mid Niigta prefecture earthquake also triggered more than one hundred deep landslides, providing valuable information on the conditions for their occurrence. A field investigation and the interpretation of aerial photographs taken before and after the earthquake suggest that reactivation of existing landslides and undercutting of slopes are the most important factors for deep landslides to be triggered by earthquakes. In addition, planar sliding surfaces seem to be essential for the generation of catastrophic landslides triggered by this earthquake. Planar bedding–parallel sliding surfaces were formed at the boundary between the overlying permeable sandstone and underlying siltstone or along the bedding planes of alternating beds of sandstone and siltstone. Sliding surfaces along the slope-parallel oxidation front were formed in the area of black mudstone. New landslides (rockslide-avalanches) occurred with the sliding surfaces in a several-cm thick tuff interbedded in siltstone. One rockslide-avalanche occurred on a slope where buckling deformation preceded the earthquake. Gentle valley bottom sediments were mobilized in many locations, probably because they were saturated and partial liquefaction had occurred due to the earthquake shaking.  相似文献   

Damage Survey of Water Supply Systems and Fragility Curve of PVC Water Pipelines in the Chi–Chi Taiwan Earthquake     

Ban-Jwu Shih  Che-Hao Chang 《Natural Hazards》2006,37(1-2):71-85

Substantial damage to water supply systems, including water delivery pipelines, water treatment plants, reservoirs, and water storage tanks, was reported after the 1999 Chi–Chi Taiwan Earthquake. This paper first summarizes the damage survey and then presents the results of seismic fragility analysis for underground pipelines. Construction blueprints of the water delivery pipelines and repair work orders of 11 townships and cities in the disastrous area were digitized into a Geographical Information System (GIS) for analysis and assessment. With the aid of the GIS system, we found that PVC pipes made up 86% of water delivery pipelines while steel, cast iron, ductile iron, PE and others took the rest. Therefore, this paper focuses on the fragility analysis of PVC pipes. Three different methods were applied to derive the fragility relations between the PVC water pipes having nominal diameters (approximately inner diameters) greater than or equal to 65 mm and earthquake intensity parameters such as peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity. The results were then examined with those of other countries. The discrepancy between our results and the empirical equation used by HAZUS, an earthquake loss estimation software developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency was not significant.  相似文献   

The 1786 earthquake-triggered landslide dam and subsequent dam-break flood on the Dadu River, southwestern China — Reply     

F.C. Dai  C.F. Lee  J.H. Deng  L.G. Tham 《Geomorphology》2006,73(3-4):277-278

A short reply to discussion by Chanson.  相似文献   

Early Estimation of Seismic Hazard for Strong Earthquakes in Taiwan   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Wen-Yu Jean  Yu-Wen Chang  Kuo-Liang Wen  Chin-Hsiung Loh 《Natural Hazards》2006,37(1-2):39-53

A shakemap system providing rapid estimates of strong ground shaking could be useful for emergency response providers in a damaging earthquake. A hybrid procedure, which combines site-dependent ground motion prediction models and the limited observations of the Real-Time Digital stream output system (RTD system operated by Central Weather Bureau, CWB), was set up to provide a high-resolution shakemap in a near-real-time manner after damaging earthquakes in Taiwan. One of the main factors that affect the result of ground motion prediction analysis is the existence of site effects. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the local site effects and their influence in the ground shaking and then establish an early estimation procedure of potential hazard for damaging earthquakes. Based on the attenuation law, the site effects of each TSMIP station are discussed in terms of a bias function that is site and intensity-level dependent function. The standard deviation of the site-dependent ground motion prediction model can be significantly reduced. The nonlinear behavior of ground soil is automatically taken into account in the intensity-level dependent bias function. Both the PGA and the spectral acceleration are studied in this study. Based on the RTD data, event correctors are calculated and applied to precisely estimate the shakemap of damaging earthquakes for emergency response.  相似文献   

Behaviour of a rupture of the 21 June 2000 earthquake in South Iceland as revealed in an asphalted car park     

Jacques Angelier  Franoise Bergerat 《Journal of Structural Geology》2002,24(12)

A major earthquake (M=6.6) occurred on 21 June 2000, in South Iceland. This paper presents an unusual example of left-lateral strike-slip displacement recorded in a newly asphalted car park surface through a mechanically consistent pattern of open fissures and pressure ridges resulting from simple shear and rotation. Measurement of these features allows accurate reconstruction of the local deformation. The behaviour of the asphalt layer resembles that of analogue physical models, especially in terms of rotations induced by shear deformation. It is finally shown that through a wide range of scales some basic patterns associating rotation and opposite senses of strike-slip exist in the South Iceland Seismic Zone.  相似文献   

数字遥测地震台网地震速报中文平台          下载免费PDF全文

赵建和  凌学书  廖诗容 《地震工程学报》2002,24(4):371-373

叙述了数字遥测地震台网地震速报中平台程序基本流程和使用特点，程序采用Vi编程方法实现以二维坐标点阵结构显示汉字，与台网的交互软件（EDSP-IAS）中的WaveView程序自动链接运行，该闰台界面操作方便直观，易于定位地震参数，自动速报上网和自动寻呼。  相似文献   

四川省房屋建筑易损性研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

何玉林  黎大虎  范开红  刘盛利 《中国地震》2002,18(1):52-58

研究房屋建筑易损性特征是防震减灾工作必不可少的环节之一，本文通过对多年工作的系统总结，得出四川省不同地区的房屋建筑易损性矩阵，全省房屋建筑抗震性能总体水平不高，这是造成地震灾害加重的主要原因之一，随着经济发展实力的提高，适当提高全省房屋建筑抗震设防水平可大大减轻特别是中强地震所造成的经济损失。  相似文献   

历史地震资料与地震的中长期预测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

金学申  傅征祥  朱艾澜  邵辉成  刘志辉  孙彦雪  魏连生 《中国地震》2002,18(3):297-304

故障诊断模型的基本内容是根据动态系统的外部特征来判断系统内部是否发生故障及确定故障发生的部位、时间和大小。由于故障诊断技术在监测及诊断故障的思路上和地震预报有很多相似之处，因此，把故障诊断技术应用于地震预报是可行的。由于该模型与其他数学模型一样，需要有较多的学习过程，所以历史地震资料在该模型中有重要作用。而其中的鲁棒性故障诊断模型在抑制各子模型的个性，凸现其共性方面有其特有的性质，所以把它作为一种综合模型，能抑制各子模型的个性，突出在地震预测方面的共性，从而提高预测的精确性。本文根据一个实例，说明了这种综合性模型的可行性。在文章的最后，由信息量的分析，说明了模型的鲁棒性特征。  相似文献